2010 Divorce Rates and Longer Term Trends

On 8th December, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the latest figures on divorces taking place in 2010. Having recently written about the trends over recent years, and what this tells us about the health of marriage as an institution, it is worth considering how these latest stats affect the bigger picture.

The headline is that the number of divorces in 2010 rose; the first annual rise in eight years (since 2003) and seemingly out of step with the broader trend. The total number of divorces that occurred in 2010 came to 119,589 representing a 4.9% increase on 2009's 113,949 divorces. Although, on the surface, this does seem to suggest a rise in the prevalence of divorce the figure could potentially be explained by other factors such as a larger married population - more tellingly the divorce rate, that is the percentage of the married population that got divorced, also rose from 10.5% in 2009 to 11.1% in 2010. So does this reinforce the perception that more marriages are failing?

Rather than an indication of a broader shift in societal attitudes it is more likely that the results for 2010 mark a glitch in a longer term decline in divorce rates. This kind of glitch or spike in divorce rates has been seen at other points in recent history when the country has been on the tail end of a recession. In 1993 the rate spiked following the recession between 1990 and 1992. There seems to have been a lag between the worst of the financial troubles and a jump in divorces and it seems plausible that this could also hint at causality; financial issues are one of the major causes of relationship breakdowns and the lag may be explained by a) an initial reaction to 'pull together' to deal with money issues, b) the build up of subsequent pressures in the relationship and then, c) once the relationship has broken down, the time it takes for divorce process itself to complete.

In terms of the broader picture, the actual number of divorces has been noticeably falling for the last decade although it is easy to attribute this to the corresponding fall in marriages and previous divorce trends eroding the size of the married population in the first place. The fact that the divorce rate has been steadily falling too suggests that those who are married are less likely to split.

Further evidence comes from the profile of those couples involved. More divorces involved individuals aged 40-44 than any other age group in 2010 but interestingly it seems that the age at which people divorce is creeping up (both men and women had 0.2 increases to 44.2 and 41.7 respectively), albeit in line with the rise in the age at which people are marrying, whilst the duration of marriages has plateaued. Moreover, the highest rate of divorces for men in 2010 was seen in the 30-34 year old age group rather than the 25-29 group in 2009 (women were unchanged). This may all suggest that marriages are starting later but are beginning to last a little longer.

Despite the latest figures telling us that 33% of marriages starting in 1995 had failed in the 15 year period to 2010 (up from 22% of those in the same 15 year period from 1970) the ONS is suggesting that the figures they have obtained so far may indicate that the rate of divorce before the 15th year for more recent marriages may be likely to decline. Again this adds a little more weight to the argument that couples now seem to be waiting longer, being more cautious but ultimately, as a result, being more successful in their marriages.

In summary, it would seem most likely that the rise in divorces in 2010 is a spike, as witnessed in previous periods of recession, rather than a longer term trend. There is still evidence in the age and duration of those getting divorced to support the bigger picture that couples are being more successful in marriage, but only time will tell.

© Stuart Mitchell 2011

I'm a small business owner. If you are looking for more information on the legal support available to you through the divorce process then visit Family Solicitors London.

Original article

What The Stats Tell Us About Marriage Trends In The UK

To many marriage should still form the bedrock of a traditional family life and therefore in turn is key to a stable and settled society. Marriage in the UK is often seen as an institution that is in crisis following the decline of widespread religious followings and the liberalisation of divorce laws and procedures, and as a result the topic has become a political fighting ground. But what do the statistics actually tell us about how our society is changing.

Marriage
The headline figure that most people tend to look at when reviewing marriage statistics is how many 'x' thousand of individuals have married in the last year. The latest figures we have at our disposal from the Office for National Statistics for England and Wales are for the year 2009 and these show that marriages fell by 1,500 on the previous year to 231,490 - a drop of 0.64%. However as the pool of available and prospective marriage candidates will never be the same from one year to the next the more telling metric to analyze is the proportion of unmarried individuals that wed in that period. Interestingly, this figure was down more significantly, in line with the longer term trends, with drops of 2.29% and 2.04% for men and women respectively. What's more, this rate is now at its lowest level on record for both sexes.

For fans of marriage this does seem to create rather a gloomy picture as it not only tells us that the sheer number of marriages taking place is dropping but as populations increase that the pool of unmarried people is, by extension, increasing (as the slightly lower number of marriages accounts for an even lower proportion of unmarried couples).

That said, by looking at some of the other clues that are available there might be solace on offer. The same set of data also indicates that the average age at which people choose to marry (both in general and for the first time) has risen and so it may actually be inferred from the data taken as a whole that people are taking the sanctity of marriage more seriously and waiting until they are more certain about the commitment before getting wed. The fact that the number of cohabiting couples has also risen may additionally imply that the delay is in part a result of a contentedness to cohabit, possible under the misconception that this affords the couple some legal status, such as the mythical common-law marriage.

Divorce
Since 2004, both the total number of couples divorcing and, more significantly, the percentage of married couples that accounts for, has been steadily falling. In 2009 the total number of divorces hit its lowest point since 1973 at 113,949, but crucially this cannot be solely attributed to a fall in the number of people getting or being married in the first place; as a proportion of those married the total only accounted for 10.5% - a 0.7 (or 6.25%) reduction on the previous year and the lowest proportion since 1977. So, in short, despite the fact that fewer people are getting married, even fewer and now divorcing.

The problem in assessing what this is telling us about the longer term trends in society is that, to a greater or lesser extent these figures may be affected by legacy issues from years or decades ago. As seen in the divorce boom of the 70s and early 80s, where on average the length of a marriage which would lead to divorce hovered around 10 to 12 years, the easing of the barriers to divorce allowed a rush of divorces for couples that may have taken the action in previous decades had the options been there.

The average length of a marriage which leads to divorce now in the UK has stabilised around 11.5 years so those couples who are divorcing now may again on the whole be telling us more about those legacy issues than the strength of marriages commencing now. Taking into account the falling divorce rate (per married couple), along with the aforementioned slight decline in marriage rates and the increasing average age of marrying individuals, it may add support to the inference that the commitment of marriage is being taken more seriously and individuals are waiting until there are ready and mature enough to marry; perhaps hinting that new marriages taking place now will ultimately lead to even lower divorce rates in the future.

These figures are only scratching the surface and to get a better understanding of the longer term trends we may need to analyse separately the outcomes of marriages which began across successive years, not to mention across the different nations of the UK.

Whatever, the future holds, there is no doubt that marriage and divorce remain contentious and political issues as well as being major transitional life events for those involved at a personal level.

© Stuart Mitchell 2011

I'm a small business owner. If you need to find more information on the legal support available to you through the divorce process then visit Divorce Solicitors London or Divorce Solicitors London.

Original article